NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Lidcoin: Strong SEC Regulation Makes Cryptocurrency Market Stronger

Since March,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center U.S. regulation has hit cryptocurrencies one after the other, with a set of fancy combinations that have left practitioners breathless.

Economist Carlota Perez in his famous book "technological revolution and financial capital" has summarized a framework, "major technological change" generally need to go through five stages: inception, frenzy, transition, synergy and maturity stage. The "turning point" of a technological revolution occurs with the bursting of the bubble in the mania phase, which is usually characterized by greater involvement of regulators and other sectors of society, and is accompanied by an economic downturn.

With the influx of institutional investors and another Bitcoin bull market, the SEC and the cryptocurrency industry had a honeymoon period in 2021: Coinbase successfully landed on the Nasdaq, becoming the first major cryptocurrency company to be listed on a U.S. stock exchange. The first official bitcoin-linked ETF fund, Proshares, was approved for listing on the NYSE. It was a year that saw Goldman Sachs and other institutions resuming cryptocurrency trading in a big way, many major tech companies listing Bitcoin as an asset in their reserves, and mainstream hedge funds pouring billions of dollars into the cryptocurrency space.

The Fed has always had concerns about the challenges and riskiness posed by cryptocurrencies. But until October 2022, U.S. regulators did not believe it would pose a threat to U.S. financial stability.

In May 2022, while global cryptocurrency investors were in a panic over the crisis in stablecoin UST, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that crypto assets were still only a small part of the broader financial system, and that turmoil in the cryptocurrency market posed no "real threat" to the stability of the U.S. financial system.

But just as it did with the rapidly reversing caliber of the Silicon Valley banking crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department identified digital or "crypto" assets such as stablecoins and lending on the industry's trading platforms as a "significant emerging vulnerability" in a report five months later.

The report concluded that crypto-asset activity could pose a risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and emphasized the importance of appropriate regulation, including enforcement of existing laws.

Data from the International Monetary Fund shows that the dollar's market share has fallen from 71% to 59% over the past 20 years.2022 After the failure of the financial tactic of raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve has not made a decision to stop hiking interest rates, and the crackdown on cryptocurrencies may still be a continuation of the financial combat to maintain the dollar's strong position.

However, this tactic is likely to backfire.Mati Greenspan warned that removing cryptocurrencies from the U.S. banking system would only further isolate the U.S. and weaken the U.S. dollar's position as the global reserve currency as more and more people begin to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border remittances around the globe.

From the impact of this year's Silicon Valley bank failures and debt crisis events, the cryptocurrency market as an alternative to the traditional financial system, its decentralized advantages appear, the SEC's strong regulation, will only make the cryptocurrency market stronger and stronger.

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