EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|How much is Klay Thompson still worth to the Golden State Warriors?

On the morning of Dec. 13,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center NBA insider Shams Charania reported that the Golden State Warriors offered five-time All-Star shooting guard Klay Thompson a two-year extension worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $48 million prior to the 2023-24 season.

Charania added that there is no deal between the two parties.

Thompson is nearly three years removed from a pair of injuries to his knee and Achilles that kept him off the court for two full seasons. Although the Warriors were able to win a championship the first year that Klay Thompson returned, there were still questions regarding whether the star shooter could continue performing at an All-NBA level. After all, he was then 31 with a pair of serious injuries attached to him.

Now, in 2023, Thompson is averaging just 15.4 points per game through 22 games, the lowest mark of his career since his rookie season. His field goal percentage (.397), three-point percentage (.343), effective field goal percentage (.498), and offensive rating (104) are all either career-lows or Thompson's lowest mark in ten or more years.

The Warriors currently sit at 10-13, 11th place in the Western Conference. If the playoffs were to start now, the Warriors would miss the postseason for just the third time in 12 years.

A 35-year-old Steph Curry has tried his darnedest to carry the team on his back, but his efforts have clearly been too little to lift the Warriors into title contention. If the Warriors want to win another title in the Curry era, they need to start scrutinizing their personnel, and looking at every option available. Thompson is supposed to be the Robin to Curry's Batman, but at 33 years old in the midst of the worst season of his career, is he still capable of filling such a role?

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What is Thompson worth to the Warriors right now?

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors are a 38-win team with Thompson on the court in 2023. Thompson's efficiency rating is an abysmal -10 though. Meaning when he doesn't play, the team performs like a 48-win squad. Just last year, Thompson had the Warriors playing like a 50-win squad when he was on the court, compared to 41 wins when he was off. That precipitous drop cannot go unnoticed.

Despite all of Thompson's career-lows on offense, the Warriors are still averaging 4.4 points more per 100 possessions with him on the court. They're scoring differential with him on the court is -3.9 though. When the Warriors have Thompson on the bench, they have an efficiency differential of +2.8, meaning they outscore their opponents by an average of 2.8 points per 100 possessions. With him on the court, that number drops to -1.1.

So, if, even during this horrible shooting slump, the Warriors are still scoring more points with Thompson on the court, what's the issue? Why is Thompson's future with the team in jeopardy? Well, his defense has been shockingly bad.

Klay Thompson has seemingly lost a step on defense

Thompson currently ranks in the ninth percentile among NBA players in defensive points per possession differential. Without Thompson on the court, the Warriors give up 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than when he is playing. Their opponents shoot better (+2.6% in effective field goal percentage - 19th percentile), turn the ball over less (-3.2% turnover rate - sixth percentile), and get more offensive rebounds (+2.8% offensive rebound percentage - 18th percentile). Just last year, Thompson ranked above the 50th percentile in all of those stats except turnover rate.

Obviously, not all of those numbers can be attributed to Thompson. And in all fairness, the Warriors aren't great defensively without Thompson off the court either. That said, the Warriors seem to be fine on offense without him and serviceable on defense. Whereas they are good on offense, but horrible on defense with him.

Thompson's greatest strengths were always as a three-and-D player. He's not shooting well right now and he's not playing great defense, so what benefits does Thompson bring when he's on the court? Most likely as a decoy. Thompson's reputation as arguably the best spot-up shooter in the game takes defensive attention away from the rest of the team. If Thompson does not improve though, eventually the rest of the league will catch on.

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Can Thompson rebound?

It's tough to teach 33-year-old dogs new tricks.

Since 1973, including 2023-24 Klay Thompson, there have only been 11 seasons where a player has:

• Played at least 20 games
• Averaged 30 or more minutes in those games
• Posted a field goal percentage under 40%
• Posted a three-point percentage under 35%
• Posted an effective field goal percentage under 50%
• Had a defensive rating greater (worse) than 115

Of the 11 seasons, Thompson ranks eighth in win shares per 48 minutes (.026). Of the other ten players:

• Two went on to have seasons with more PPG in the future (Trey Burke '13-14, Nick Van Exel '98-99)
  • Both of these players were under 28 years old
• Seven never reached their PPG figure from that season again (Michael Adams '90-91, Saddiq Bey '21-22, Luguentz Dort '22-23, Trevor Ariza '18-19, Tim Hardaway Jr. '18-19, Vernon Maxwell '95-96, Jim Jackson '92-93)
• One is experiencing this type of season in 2023-24 as well (Spencer Dinwiddie)

Essentially, every player to put up a season like we are seeing from Klay Thompson was either young and still developing (we know Thompson isn't), at their scoring peak (most likely scenario with Thompson), or Spencer Dinwiddie (more on him in a moment). Obviously, anything is possible, but history is not on Thompson's side.

On the note of Spencer Dinwiddie

Now, 30-year-old Spencer Dinwiddie, despite having an atrocious season as a shooter, is actually playing pretty well this year. One quick Google search and you'll receive a litany of results about how Dinwiddie is stepping up for the Nets this season. However, he's done so by upping his playmaking ability, something we've never seen Thompson do.

Dinwiddie's career assists per game mark was just 5.3 coming into the season. He's averaging 6.4 assists per game through 21 games with the Nets this year. He's taken a step back as a scorer for the team and allowed himself to become a facilitator. As a result, the Nets boast a +7.6 point differential per 100 possessions when Dinwiddie is on the court. When he is on the bench, the Nets are at -6.

Thompson isn't a player who excels with the ball in his hands. His career-high in assists per game is 2.9, and he once famously scored 60 points while dribbling just 11 times.

The Warriors also don't need a facilitator. They need someone who can keep defenses honest and take attention away from Stephen Curry. They already have Chris Paul, Draymond Green, and Curry, each of whom have served as the point man for teams in the past. TWO of them even had State Farm commercials made about them because of how good they are at dishing out assists.

Thompson's future with the Warriors should be in question

As much as Warriors fans would hate to see Thompson leave the team, objectively, there is reason to be concerned with Thompson's potential in the future. The two best aspects of his game for most of his career are dropping off rapidly.

Unless Thompson can prove himself capable of consistently playing second fiddle like he used to, the Warriors should be cautious about re-signing him. If Thompson can't start improving in those areas, I'd hate to say it, but he might quickly become another Kyle Korver.

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