NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Boston Celtics are one win from NBA Finals after Game 3 comeback against Indiana Pacers

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterNBA Finals start June 6 in Boston.

OK, so the Finals definitely start June 6. The Boston part is premature.

If you don’t feel comfortable cementing the Celtics in the Finals now that they’re up 3-0 against the depleted Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, at least pencil them in.

No team has come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in the NBA playoffs, and of the 154 times a team has trailed 3-0, it has forced a Game 7 just four times.

Not only are the odds against the Pacers, reality is against them, too. The Celtics are the best team in the East and have the most talented roster among the four teams in the conference finals.

That doesn’t guarantee the Celtics another title. There are questions, to be sure, and Saturday’s come-from-behind victory left Celtics skeptics with one eyebrow askew.

But they’re just one victory from their second Finals appearance in three seasons.

The Celtics beat the Pacers, 114-111, in Game 3, and the Pacers were without All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who aggravated his left hamstring in Game 2. His availability for Game 4 remains a question mark, too.

The Pacers’ chances to make this a close series dwindled after they squandered a chance to steal Game 1 and then were just no match for the Celtics in Game 2. They played well in Game 3, especially without Haliburton, but Boston’s defensive pressure and talent became too much late in the game.

Up 3-0, the Celtics can complete the sweep on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN2).

With 38.9 seconds left in the game, Jrue Holiday gave Boston its first lead since the second quarter with a three-point play, making the score 112-111. Holiday, who was named to the All-Defensive team this season, stole the ball with 3.3 seconds left, preventing Indiana from attempting a go-ahead shot. His two free throws with 1.7 seconds left accounting for the final score.

Indiana’s Aaron Nesmith, a former Celtic, missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer.

Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 36 points and had 10 rebounds, eight assists and two blocks, and Jaylen Brown continued his strong play with 24 points. Al Hoford added 23 points, giving the Celtics a third consecutive game against the Pacers with three players scoring at least 20 points. Holiday contributed 14 points, nine rebounds and three steals.

Derrick White, another Celtics player on the All-Defensive team, had 13 points, seven assists, five rebounds and four blocks as Boston’s starting five all played at least 36 minutes and wore down the Pacers.

It wasn’t a convincing Celtics victory Saturday. The Pacers led most of the game, but their 18-point lead in the third quarter dwindled to 93-90 with 8:31 left in the fourth quarter. They couldn't fend off the Celtics.     

Boston did not take advantage of an opportunity to put away Indiana early in the game, and while that narrative — they don’t have that knockout mentality — bothers the Celtics and their fans, it will stick with them until Boston wins a title with this group led by Tatum and Brown. These games where focus drifts and performance is uneven, doubt creeps in about Boston’s ability to win a title.

The Celtics and their No. 2 defense were outscored 68-40 in points in the paint and gave up 69 points in the first half, illustrating how much they miss Kristaps Porzingis, who is close to returning from a calf injury.

The Pacers’ Andrew Nembhard scored 32 points, T.J. McConnell had 23 points and Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner each added 22.