First and 10: Texas has an Arch Manning problem. Is he the quarterback or Quinn Ewers?

1. The Texas football QB decision

It's not a matter of if Arch Manning is going to play well. It's how good it will look if and when he does again.

And how it could change the dynamic of the quarterback position for Texas, which is ranked No. 2 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

When starter Quinn Ewers left last weekend's game against Texas-San Antonio with an oblique injury, it opened a door that every red-blooded college football fan wildly ran through. Manning, the No.1 recruit from the 2023 recruiting class with the famous last name, finally got his chance.

Then played like every other Manning in this sport since the 1960s. Like a rock star.

Suddenly, Manning is the only thing that could keep Ewers from the Heisman Trophy. Hyperbole? Probably.

But we're not that far from Texas coach Steve Sarkisian being forced to make a decision between the two quarterbacks. Ewers is listed as "day to day," according to Sarkisian, and the injury is, essentially, wait and see. Like all oblique injuries. 

These injuries are some of the most difficult to assess and treat. Every injury is different (Sarkisian says Ewers' injury is an “abdomen strain”), and everyone heals differently. 

Now let me reintroduce JT Daniels, the former Georgia quarterback and Heisman Trophy favorite (sound familiar?) who sustained an oblique injury in Week 2 of the 2021 season. Daniels was considered week-to-week with his injury. 

He wasn’t cleared to play again until late October, and by that time, a spunky backup named Stetson Bennett took over and eventually won two consecutive national titles.  

This, of course, leads us to the Manning Problem. 

2. Oklahoma and Georgia are waiting

Even if Ewers returns this week, or if he only misses one or both of the next two cakewalk games (Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State), the nature of the injury is the issue. 

Soft tissue injury rehabilitation is tenuous at best. From hamstring injuries, to quadriceps and biceps and pectoral strains, they all live in the same, frustrating, week to week clearance status -- and all have a higher instance of re-injury without sustained rest.  

That uncertainty brings into play the most important two-game stretch of the season for Texas: Oklahoma (Oct. 12) and Georgia (Oct. 19). The same Oklahoma that has won two of the last three over Texas, and the same Georgia and its (growing by the week) SEC record 28 consecutive SEC wins. 

And now, the Manning Problem. 

Let’s say Manning plays and does what many expect, putting up big numbers and keeping the Texas train humming toward a potential SEC championship and No.1 seed in the College Football Playoff. 

Then what? Once Stetson Bennett replaced Daniels — and played at a high level — there was no chance Georgia coach Kirby Smart was moving back to Daniels. He rode the hot hand.

There’s also the possibility that if Ewers doesn't play and Manning isn’t ready for the moment, Texas loses a game or two — and its CFP hopes are seriously damaged by mid-October.

But it doesn't sound like Sarkisian is worried about that.

"We expose (Manning) to so much that I don't feel like I'm handcuffed when Arch is in the game," he said. 

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3. The Manning Problem, The Epilogue

We all knew this was coming. It’s the tenuous nature of the most important position on the field, and the growing empirical evidence about the rise of quarterback injuries.

And then there’s Ewers’ injury history.

Two years ago, he missed three and a half games with a collarbone injury. Last year, he missed two games with an injury to his throwing shoulder. 

In fact, Ewers only played one full season in high school. On track record alone, it was only a matter of time before Manning got his opportunity. 

Sarkisian went from the perfect quarterback room — a Heisman Trophy frontrunner and an uber-talented backup willing to wait his turn — to an interesting potential quarterback quandary. He could eventually have to make a decision between the quarterback who got him to the CFP last season and was playing at a high level before the injury, or the quarterback who just wanted an opportunity and got it.

Then seized the moment.

It’s a delicious dilemma. A blessing and a curse. 

4. Michigan football: consequences of bad decisions

So QB Davis Warren is struggling and the offense is predictable, and Michigan is 99th in the nation in scoring (23.3 ppg.) and as exciting as a hangover. 

This is surprising to no one who paid attention to the Michigan roster. 

New coach Sherrone Moore had an opportunity this offseason to sign a quarterback from the transfer portal, but instead stood with a quarterback room that had a combined 37 pass attempts at Michigan. Three games into the season, Warren – who had 14 of those attempts over three previous seasons – has already been benched.

I know this is going to shock everyone, but a career backup given the starting job at a major program has two touchdown passes and six interceptions in three games.

It should come as no surprise then, that Alex Orji is the new starter at Michigan. The same Orji who has been more of a situational run-game quarterback since he arrived at Michigan in 2022.

The pass offense, despite playing two Group of Five games (Fresno State and Arkansas State), is 121st in the nation going into Saturday’s Big Ten opener against No. 12 Southern California, and the Wolverines are on the verge of losing their second game in four under Moore.

After losing two in the previous 30 under former coach Jim Harbaugh. 

5. The Weekly Five: Georgia finds a way

The last five Georgia games vs. Kentucky in Lexington under Kirby Smart, won by a combined 42 points.

2024: 13-12, Kentucky had the ball at midfield with four minutes to play.

2022: 16-6, Kentucky didn’t score until midway through fourth quarter.

2020: 14-3, Kentucky's final four drives: fumble, punt, downs, end of game.

2018: 34-17, only rout of the series.

2016: 27-24, Georgia hit a game-winning field goal as time expired.

6. Scout's view: Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. This week: Bowling Green TE Harold Fanning Jr. (The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparations.)

“His length and catch radius is impressive. He’s listed at (6-feet-4) 230 pounds, but plays a lot bigger. He’s not an in-line tight end, but he’s not getting blown off the point of attack, either. A sneaky good run blocker. Watch the Penn State game. His athleticism is freaky, and he’ll fit perfectly in vertical offenses in our league.”

7. Power play: Alabama rising

This week's College Football Playoff Poll, and one big thing.

1. Texas: Even an injury to the starting quarterback doesn’t slow the momentum.

2. Ohio State: Two cupcake games to start, an open week, and Marshall up next. Yawn.

3. Miami: They’ve opened the upper deck at Raymond James Stadium for South Florida, expecting a large crowd with Miami's arrival.  

4. Oklahoma State: Big 12 opener against Utah, and first big test for QB Alan Bowman.

5. Alabama: Two weeks of preparation for Georgia, which Tide has beaten eight of the last nine meetings by an average of 11.3 ppg.

6. Georgia: When motivated, this is the best team in the nation. 

7. Ole Miss: It all looks nearly perfect against the overmatched. 

8. Tennessee: Nothing like coach Josh Heupel returning to alma mater Oklahoma with the hottest offense in the nation.

9. Southern California: It all feels and looks good. Let’s see it in a difficult environment at Michigan. 

10. Missouri: Sneaky games (Boston College and Vanderbilt) don’t trip elite teams.

11. Oregon: Ducks reset against rival Oregon State, still have questions on the O-line.

12. Memphis: Tigers physically stood up to Florida State, and QB Seth Henigan is a difference-maker. 

8. Mail bonding: The new Pac-12

Matt: I’m thrilled that the Pac-12 is finally fighting back and trying to stay alive. Where does the conference go for future additions? — Jeff Donald, Tucson, Arizona.

Jeff: 

The initial grab of four Mountain West teams (Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, San Diego State) didn’t include the quickly emerging television property draw of UNLV. 

The problem: UNLV still is holding out hope for an offer from the Big 12.

There are politics involved, and the state of Nevada doesn’t want UNLV to leave without Nevada to any conference. There’s also the value aspect of UNLV: does it add value to the Big 12, and will Fox and ESPN give the Big 12 money to add another program that historically doesn’t draw good numbers — but is a booming market of potential?

Let’s say the Pac-12 moves to nine teams (the preferred model), leaving three spots available. The fiscally prudent move is to add another time zone to expand television reach (West Coast, Mountain and Central times zones), and that means Memphis and Tulane. 

The Pac-12 could do a lot worse than UNLV, Memphis and Tulane to complete the league. 

9. Numbers game: Josh Heupel and quarterbacks

Forget about the looming story that Heupel still is upset about getting fired from his alma mater (how could he not?), and focus on the reaction. Because that’s all that matters after the firing, in sports or life. 

How do you respond?

In the 10 years since Heupel’s firing as Oklahoma offensive coordinator, his quarterbacks at Utah State (OC/QB coach), Missouri (OC/QB coach), UCF and Tennessee have a combined TD/INT ratio of – are you ready for this? – 288/67. 

If you eliminate this current partial season (8 TD, 3 INT), Heupel’s quarterbacks have averaged 31 TDs and 7 INTs a season since he was fired at Oklahoma. And just for good measure: Heupel’s quarterbacks have also rushed for 57 touchdowns over the last 10 seasons.

That’s 345 total touchdowns in 74 games, for an average of 4.6 a game. 

10. The last word: Florida State's slide

Just in case anyone believes, beyond doubt, that this is the week Florida State gets off the mat, consider this:

California, this week’s opponent in Tallahassee, is giving up 288.7 yards and 12.3 points per game. The Bears also lead the nation in turnovers forced (10), and already have one Power Five road win (Auburn) in a difficult environment.

Meanwhile, I give you Florida State QB D.J. Uiagalelei: 1 TD, 2 INT, completing 57 percent of his passes, and has 23 carries for -14 yards.