FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|32 things we learned in NFL Week 12: Playoff chase shaping up to be wild

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center32 things we learned from Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season:

1. Get ready for a wild sprint over the final six weeks of the regular season – 14 playoff spots, including two first-round byes, on the line. In the AFC alone Sunday, the No. 1 seed traded hands four times – the Miami Dolphins beginning the day in possession of it … until the Jacksonville Jaguars temporarily took hold of it … before they surrendered it to the Kansas City Chiefs. All three clubs are 8-3. But that perch reverted back to the Baltimore Ravens (9-3) after they outlasted the Los Angeles Chargers 20-10 on Sunday night.

1a. Baltimore has its bye in Week 13, which is obviously good ... and bad. With three AFC losses − more than Kansas City, Jacksonville or Miami – the Ravens are not likely to retain that top seeding going into Week 14.

2. Matters are just as volatile at the bottom of the AFC’s postseason table. Sunday began with the Houston Texans holding the conference’s final wild-card spot and ended with the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) clinging to it … but only because the Buffalo Bills defense collapsed in overtime at Philadelphia.

3. The Bills are now a half-game out of the seventh seed, yet find themselves in 10th place overall in the conference – the Texans and Denver Broncos, both at 6-5, between Buffalo and Indianapolis.

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4. The Broncos and Eagles currently pace the NFL with matching five-game winning streaks.

5. Philadelphia is the first team in the league to reach 10 wins, matching last year’s 10-1 start, and is two games clear of their closest NFC pursers (San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys) in the race for home-field advantage.

6. The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts has at least 10 rushing TDs each of the past three seasons, something no other quarterback has done twice in a row. He's the first ever at his position to have 11 games with multiple rushing scores, breaking a tie with Cam Newton. Hurts' 12-yard gallop to the paint in overtime gutted the Bills.

7. How’s that offensive coordinator change going in Buffalo? The Bills are averaging 33 points in two games under interim OC Joe Brady and posted a season-high 505 yards in Sunday’s 37-34 loss at Philly. Head coach Sean McDermott, who also runs Buffalo’s defense, needs to take a hard look at himself and that side of the ball after his team suffered a collapse reminiscent of the overtime loss at Arrowhead Stadium to the Chiefs nearly two years ago in the divisional round of the playoffs.

8. Bills QB Josh Allen, who accounted for four TDs on Sunday and had a heroic effort in that epic loss to Kansas City, is now 0-6 in overtime during his NFL career.

9. Philadelphia’s defense was on the field so long – 92 plays and more than 40 minutes of game action – that four different Eagles made at least 10 tackles.

10. How’s that offensive coordinator change going in Pittsburgh? Just a few days after firing long-embattled Matt Canada, the Steelers topped 400 yards for the first time in 58 games and outgained their opponent for the first time this season in what otherwise would be a forgettable 16-10 victory over the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals.

11. Does anyone want to win the NFC South? It’s the only division in the NFL devoid of a team with a winning record.

12. The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) are technically in first place after beating the New Orleans Saints (also 5-6) 24-15 in their first matchup of the season. The teams will meet again in Week 17.

13. The Saints, who entered Sunday with a 48.6% success rate converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, were 0-for-5 in Atlanta.

14. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South with an 8-9 record – and QB Tom Brady – in 2022, could have created a three-way logjam atop the division Sunday … but didn’t survive the Colts, losing 27-20.

15. The Texans could have moved into first place in the AFC South but came up just a bit short – literally – in their bid to sweep the Jaguars. Houston K Matt Ammendola, who’s filling in for injured Ka'imi Fairbairn, hit the crossbar from 58 yards with less than a minute to play in a 24-21 loss. It was Ammendola’s second missed field-goal try of the day.

16. But it was another memorable day for Houston QB C.J. Stroud, who passed for 304 yards and a pair of TDs. With that effort, he became the first rookie to pass for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games.

17. Stroud also ran for a team-high 47 yards and a score.

18. Jaguars OLB Josh Allen collected 2½ sacks of Stroud, giving him a career-high 12. The price tag continues to climb on Allen, who’s scheduled to hit free agency after the season.

19. Two other teams were also betrayed by their kickers. New England Patriots rookie Chad Ryland missed a 35-yard FG that would have tied the lowly New York Giants with 3 seconds to go. Saints rookie Blake Grupe was short on a 54-yarder with 26 seconds left – though, in fairness to him, he did score all 15 of his team’s points, and a conversion would have merely pulled New Orleans within six points of the lead. Both the Patriots and Saints traded more established kickers – Nick Folk and Wil Lutz, respectively – prior to the season.

20. Folk (Tennessee Titans) and Lutz (Broncos) were perfect on a combined eight kicks, PATs or FGs, in victorious efforts Sunday.

21. The Patriots fell to 2-9, head coach Bill Belichick’s worst mark ever through 11 games – including his stint leading the Cleveland Browns.

22. Keep an eye on the Los Angeles Rams as a wild-card dark horse, Sunday’s 37-14 lashing of the Arizona Cardinals – keyed by healthy QB Matthew Stafford (4 TD passes) and RB Kyren Williams – making them 2-0 coming out of their bye week.

23. Now 5-6, the Rams join the Green Bay Packers and Saints among teams one game behind the Minnesota Vikings, who play Monday night, and Seattle Seahawks for the NFC’s final two playoff spots.

24. Williams, who played for the first time since Oct. 15 after recovering from an ankle injury, had 204 yards from scrimmage and caught two of Stafford’s TD throws. In two games against the Cardinals this season, Williams has 362 yards and three TDs.

25. The Rams have won nine straight in the Arizona desert.

26.LA QB2 Carson Wentz checked into the game for mop-up duty, officially making the Rams the fourth team he’s played for in the past four seasons.

27. With a 45-10 beatdown of the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys ran their winning streak in North Texas to a league-best 13 games. Their average margin of victory there in 2023 is 29 points, and "Amercia’s Team" has beaten all five of the visitors to Jerry World by at least 20.

28. Second-year Cowboys CB DaRon Bland broke the record for most pick-sixes in a season Thursday, taking back a misfire from Washington QB Sam Howell for 63 yards and the score. The question now is whether Bland can Bob Beamon this thing with six games to go – including another scheduled outing against Howell along with matchups against turnover-prone QBs Allen and Jared Goff.

29. The Lions remain atop the NFC North and on track to win it for the first time. But maybe it's time to surrender their Thanksgiving tradition given they've lost seven straight on Turkey Day.

30. San Francisco DE Nick Bosa ate well on Thanksgiving, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year posting his first two-sack game of the season – giving him five over his past three outings. Bosa, who missed training camp and preseason while awaiting a contract extension, seems to be rounding into form along with the Niners, who moved up to No. 2 in the overall NFC standings with Thursday’s win.

31. Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young fell to 1-2 when matched up against fellow rookies. Ironically, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft beat Stroud – the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner – but lost to Chicago’s Tyson Bagent and, on Sunday, to the Titans’ Will Levis.

32. Las Vegas may have lost to the Chiefs on Sunday, but you know it’s truly a new day for the organization when the Raiders aren’t penalized once.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.